September 11, 2026
Maharajan, Keshav Lall
Vice President, Association of Regional Agricultural and Forestry Economics, Japan


Why was the damage beyond imagination?
The reason the damage this time was so overwhelmingly large is not only due to the massive landslide caused by the collapse of glaciers and bedrock on the northern slope of Mount Langtang Lirung, as previously mentioned, and the cascading destructive natural phenomena, and factors related to the region’s geology and geography, but also the historical, diplomatic, modern trade and commercial, tourism, religious and cultural, and infrastructure construction elements.

Historical Background
Human movement between Nepal and Tibet through trade and the creation of statues and other Buddhist artifacts, as represented by Arniko, began in the 7th century. At that time, Nepal prospered around the Nepal Valley (present-day Kathmandu Valley), and caravans would travel from Nepal to Tibet for trade. In addition, many skilled artisans who built temples, stupas, and Buddha statues also moved from Nepal to Tibet. The movement of these merchants and artisans was active during the era of the medieval Newar Malla kings, who flourished in the Nepal Valley. From the 13th century onwards for several centuries, trade was thriving, and Newar merchants were wealthy, with some establishing trading posts in Lhasa by the 17th century. There were as many as 32 of them.

The trade routes at the time were through Trisuli, Rasuwagadi, Kerung, Shigatse, and Lhasa, known as the Kerung route. Together with the Kuti (Nyalam-Tongla) route (Kodari-Tatopani route), they were the two main trade arteries. This trade and commerce continued actively under the modern and contemporary Nepal Shah dynasty until China annexed Tibet in the 1950s. Coins used in Tibet at the time were made in Nepal, and diplomatic relations with Tibet were good. However, due to issues such as impurities in the minted coins, Nepal and Tibet engaged in war. In 1792 war, with China participating as a proxy for Tibet, advanced along this trade route as far as Betrawati. The two armies faced each other there across the Trisuli River, but the Chinese troops could not progress further because the river had flooded. They reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement by a large stone on the riverbank, known as the 'Sandi Dunga (Treaty Stone),' historically a symbol of friendship with China; however, there are reports that it was washed away in this recent flood.
A friend, who is a descendant of a family that had a merchant house in Lhasa, occasionally tells me stories that their ancestors shared about trade and caravan routes in Lhasa. There are tales of fights with bandits in narrow mountain passes, protecting themselves from vultures, crossing the Yarlung Tsangpo River on floating boats made from yak-hide rafts (with the yak’s head placed at the front, shaped like a yak), and so on. Some stories mention delays or being held up in Betrawati caused by river floods. Also, according to the news about this recent flood, an elderly person said that this river went wild about 50 years ago as well. But back then, there weren’t towns like there are now, so the damage was minimal. In other words, this river has a history of flooding, but because there were no towns and not much fire risk in the past, the damage was small, it didn’t attract much attention, and people had no memory of it. Residents of places like Betrawati and Trisuli feel that 'the river wasn’t that furious during last year’s flood, and the damage wasn’t that bad.' I see, this time too, there was a warning, but very few people took it seriously or evacuated. It was breakfast time, so most people were busy preparing meals or getting ready to go to work. Some school principals responded to the warning immediately, telling students not to attend school and helping them avoid harm. There was even a principal who saved students but got swept away himself.
I keep thinking that if there was a communication network (renrakumo in Japanese), it would have been good if it were as established as in Japan. The information could have been relayed fast. They say that it took 40 to 50 minutes for the flood from Rasuwagadi to reach the open areas like Betrawati this time, so if the warning system had worked properly and people had evacuated according to it, many lives could have been saved even if houses and towns were washed away. The warnings were mostly by phone to offices, schools, and hospitals. There were digital boards at public offices. However, ordinary residents didn’t get direct alerts, so warnings sometimes just ended as 'rumors,' losing their significance. Clearly, siren-based warnings are necessary in each area. The current warnings seem to be triggered only when the river reaches a dangerous water level, and there doesn’t seem to be a backup system for massive floods like this one. In many cases, water level measuring machinery along the riverbanks was washed away as well. Also, in mountainous areas, it’s necessary to measure not just water levels but also flood speed, strength, and scale, and include that in the warning systems.

Diplomatic Background, Modern Trade, and the Push for Commerce
A series of events related to Tibet in the 1950s—especially the Tibetan uprising, the Dalai Lama's exile, and China's annexation of Tibet—led to Tibet becoming an autonomous region of the People's Republic of China. From that time, trade from the Kerung route came to a halt, and fewer people used this path. Later, Tibetan exiles/ refugees arrived, and a Tibetan refugee camp was set up in villages around Shabru Besi. This refugee camp seemed to serve as a transit and stepping-stone destination for people heading to Kathmandu, Delhi, Dharamshala (where the Dalai Lama resides), and even Western countries. Also, for ordinary civilians traveling from Kerung to Tibet, this was a discreet route without strict peacetime checkpoints, and for a long time, people continued to use it. When I visited this camp in 1990, there were elderly people, children, and a few young women. Young men were nowhere to be seen.
In the 1970s, with the signing of a new friendship treaty with the People's Republic of China, the Kodari road was built with Chinese aid, establishing a commercial route via Tatopani. Cross-border trade with China shifted to that route, and the Kerung route declined. Things changed again after the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The Tatopani checkpoint, the Friendship Bridge, and part of the roads leading to it were completely destroyed, and with no clear timeline for restoration, the Kerung route was reopened. Since then, infrastructure has been rapidly developed, and the business community responded by using this route for trade. Police and military checkpoints, dry ports, customs offices, and banks became concentrated in Timure. Hotels and eateries were also established, boosting the area. Similarly, Shabru Besi also saw remarkable development, due to reasons that will be mentioned later.

Touristic, Religious and Cultural Aspects
With the boom in Himalayan mountaineering after the World War II, Mount Langtang Lirung also started to gain attention from the mountaineers around the world, and the number of climbing teams and caravan groups using this route increased. Trekkers attracted by the beauty of the Langtang Valley also increased, and Shabru Besi, which serves as a base for them, began to thrive. When traveling by land, passing through the military checkpoints on the way there used to be difficult. Especially when the Maoists were engaged in armed activities, even local residents couldn’t move freely. Around 1990, when returning to Kathmandu after field research in Shabru village, it was late at night, and I couldn’t get permission to pass through that military-controlled area, so I spent a night in the car. Later, as the political situation stabilized, the Maoists became a political party, Nepal became a republican country, and conditions settled down, making travel by land much easier. While the big mountaineering boom with expedition teams has passed, small-scale and individual climbs of Mount Langtang Lirung and trekking in the Langtang Valley have become popular, attracting tourists from all over the world.

In this region, there is a lake called Gosainkunda, considered a holy site in both Nepali and Indian culture, and pilgrimages are continuous. This year, August 28 was a Mela (a full moon day for pilgrimage), which brought many devotees.

Also, the month of Bhadra in the Nepali official Vikram Samvat calendar (August-September in the Gregorian calendar) is the pilgrimage month for Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar in South Asian tradition, and people from around the world visit seeking blessings. Making a pilgrimage at least once in a lifetime is encouraged and is everyone’s wish. There are several routes from Nepal and India to Mount Kailash, but this route is said to be the easiest and safest, attracting pilgrims from all over the world. This is one reason why there were many foreigners among the disaster victims. Particularly, there seem to have been many NRI (Non-Resident Indians—Indians or people of Indian origin living in a third country and holding its nationality) pilgrims.

The State of Infrastructure Construction
Hydroelectric power plants have been built on the Trisuli River for quite some time and have been contributing to the country's electricity needs. Additionally, the government has spearheaded the construction of three more power plants that can generate even more electricity. On top of that, there are 11 major big and small power plants built jointly with private and foreign investment companies. A significant amount of investment has been poured into this river. Along with that, towns have developed, and the population involved in the construction and operation of these power plants has increased. Among the disaster victims this time, many are operators, engineers, and workers working at these power plants. One of the plants is being built by a South Korean company, so it is believed that there are many Koreans among the missing. Similarly, among those trapped in the power plants, there are many Nepalese, as well as Chinese and Indian workers. Additionally, expansion work is being conducted on the road between Shabru Besi and Rasuwagadi, and since a Chinese company is handling this construction, Chinese supervisors and engineers, Nepalese engineers, and Indian workers were also working there. Many of them are missing. It is also said that China has begun considering routing the Kathmandu-Lhasa railway through this area, and there is news that some surveys have already been completed. What happens to this plan is to be seen with keen interest hereafter.

This route, which has become a key land trade link with China, is commercially very important. Trucks transporting goods, local residents, merchants, tourists' vehicles, buses, and two-wheelers all frequently pass through. Supporting that, hotels, restaurants, and other service businesses have been developing well. The main hubs for these are the towns of Timure, Shabru Besi, Dhunche, Betrawati, Trisuli, and Bidur, and it is precisely these towns and areas that have suffered major damage this time